Updated Sun 27 Sep 14:40 (Europe/Riga)
Monday 28 September · ALL DAY
- crosswind 6-7 kt, runway 06
- est. base 500-3800 ft at 0% low cloud
- visibility 7-24 km
- gusty - check the gust crosswind
- models disagree - treat the timing as provisional
- ceiling is a model estimate - check the EVLA METAR
Sunrise 07:31, sunset 19:19, on the ground by 18:19 (Europe/Riga). The landing deadline is 60 min (the default margin) before sunset. Sun times are computed from the solar position, not taken from the AIP.
Hour by hour
Every value is the median of the three models. Under crosswind, base, low cloud and visibility, a small second line gives each model's own figure (ECMWF · ICON-EU · GFS), so you can see when they disagree. A gust marked (?) came from a model whose gust figure is implausible at that wind speed.
| Local | Hour | Rwy | Wind°T / kt | Headkt | Crosskt | Gust xwkt | Est. baseft | Low cloud% | Viskm | Precipmm/h | CAPEJ/kg | Temp°C | Modelsagree | TAF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | poorD | 06 | 136/6 | 1.9 | 5.75.7 · 3.0 · 5.8 | -(?) | 480480 · 240 · 560 | 00 · 29 · 0 | 8.2- · 8.2 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 8 | 100% | EVLAno gust |
| 08:00 | marginalX | 06 | 136/7 | 2.1 | 5.95.9 · 3.4 · 6.1 | -(?) | 520520 · 320 · 600 | 00 · 30 · 0 | 7.2- · 7.2 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 8 | 33%disputed | EVLAno gust |
| 09:00 | marginalX | 06 | 138/7 | 2.1 | 6.16.1 · 4.0 · 6.8 | -(?) | 760760 · 520 · 1080 | 00 · 13 · 0 | 19- · 19 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 10 | 67% | EVLAno gust |
| 10:00 | marginalX | 06 | 145/6 | 1.6 | 6.16.1 · 5.1 · 7.8 | -(?) | 11601160 · 760 · 1800 | 00 · 4 · 0 | 24- · 24 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 12 | 67% | EVLAno gust |
| 11:00 | goD | 06 | 151/6 | 1.1 | 5.85.8 · 5.6 · 8.4 | -(?) | 19201920 · 1000 · 2400 | 00 · 23 · 0 | 24- · 27 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | 67%disputed | EVLAno gust |
| 12:00 | goD | 06 | 159/6 | 0.7 | 5.85.8 · 5.0 · 8.3 | -(?) | 25202520 · 1200 · 2920 | 00 · 20 · 0 | 24- · 29 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 16 | 67%disputed | EVLAno gust |
| 13:00 | marginalX | 24 | 167/6 | 0.9 | 6.26.2 · 5.4 · 8.6 | -(?) | 31203120 · 1360 · 3320 | 00 · 33 · 0 | 24- · 31 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 17 | 33%disputed | EVLAno gust |
| 14:00 | marginalX | 24 | 177/7 | 2.1 | 6.96.9 · 6.3 · 8.1 | -(?) | 35603560 · 1640 · 3760 | 00 · 52 · 0 | 24- · 34 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 18 | 67% | EVLAno gust |
| 15:00 | marginalX | 24 | 180/8 | 2.7 | 7.17.1 · 6.4 · 8.2 | 13.6 | 38003800 · 1880 · 4000 | 00 · 45 · 0 | 24- · 36 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 19 | 67%disputed | - |
| 16:00 | marginalX | 24 | 178/7 | 2.7 | 6.56.5 · 6.2 · 8.0 | 13.6 | 36803680 · 2040 · 3880 | 00 · 26 · 0 | 24- · 37 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 18 | 67%disputed | - |
| 17:00 | goD | 24 | 175/6 | 2.1 | 5.75.2 · 5.7 · 6.5 | -(?) | 32403240 · 1720 · 3360 | 00 · 23 · 0 | 24- · 35 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 18 | 67% | - |
| 18:00 | poorD | 24 | 167/5 | 1.2 | 4.74.7 · 4.0 · 5.7 | -(?) | 26402840 · 1240 · 2640 | 00 · 0 · 0 | 24- · 31 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 17 | 100% | - |
| 19:00 | dark | 06 | 154/5 | 0.4 | 4.94.9 · 3.3 · 5.3 | -(?) | 17602240 · 720 · 1760 | 00 · 0 · 0 | 24- · 24 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 15 | 100% | - |
The base is an estimate
The base is an Espy estimate from model temperature and dew point, read beside low-cloud cover. It is not a measured ceiling. Aim for 2000 ft and make the final call on the day.
How this forecast changed
Each row is one stored prediction for Monday 28 September, from D+4, when the day first entered the forecast, up to now. The hour columns are the same in every row. If a column changes colour as you read down, the forecast changed its mind. The label on the right is the window that run found. 2 predictions, oldest first. The last row is the forecast shown above.