Updated Sun 27 Sep 14:40 (Europe/Riga)
Wednesday 30 September · AFTERNOON
- crosswind 1-3 kt, runway 15
- est. base 1800-2700 ft at 30-60% low cloud
- visibility 24 km
- models disagree - treat the timing as provisional
- D+3: too far out for hour detail, crosswind good to about 6 kt
- ceiling is a model estimate - no observation exists for EVAD
Sunrise 07:23, sunset 19:01, on the ground by 18:01 (Europe/Riga). The landing deadline is 60 min (the default margin) before sunset. Sun times are computed from the solar position, not taken from the AIP.
Hour by hour
Every value is the median of the three models. Under crosswind, base, low cloud and visibility, a small second line gives each model's own figure (ECMWF · ICON-EU · GFS), so you can see when they disagree. A gust marked (?) came from a model whose gust figure is implausible at that wind speed. At D+3 the hours are not reliable one by one. Read the table for the character of the day.
| Local | Hour | Rwy | Wind°T / kt | Headkt | Crosskt | Gust xwkt | Est. baseft | Low cloud% | Viskm | Precipmm/h | CAPEJ/kg | Temp°C | Modelsagree | TAF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | no-goC | 15 | 137/2 | 1.5 | 0.50.5 · 1.9 · 0.2 | 1.1 | 800 · 80 · 1200 | 8484 · 84 · 100 | 1.6- · 1.6 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 13 | 67%disputed | - |
| 08:00 | no-goC | 15 | 127/2 | 1.4 | 0.30.2 · 2.3 · 0.3 | 0.7 | 800 · 80 · 1120 | 8691 · 86 · 75 | 0.6- · 0.6 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 13 | 67% | - |
| 09:00 | no-goC | 15 | 124/3 | 1.3 | 0.90.5 · 3.0 · 0.9 | 1.6 | 12040 · 120 · 1360 | 8792 · 87 · 48 | 0.5- · 0.5 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 13 | 67%disputed | - |
| 10:00 | no-goC | 15 | 123/4 | 1.1 | 0.60.5 · 4.2 · 0.6 | 2.2 | 320320 · 320 · 1360 | 8381 · 83 · 100 | 0.8- · 0.8 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | 67%disputed | - |
| 11:00 | poorC | 15 | 119/4 | 0.9 | 0.60.6 · 3.8 · 0.4 | 3.0 | 760760 · 720 · 1360 | 8062 · 80 · 100 | 20- · 20 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 15 | 67% | - |
| 12:00 | marginalC | 15 | 123/4 | 0.9 | 1.20.5 · 3.6 · 1.2 | 2.7 | 12401240 · 1000 · 1920 | 7347 · 73 · 100 | 24- · 27 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 16 | 33%disputed | - |
| 13:00 | goD | 15 | 133/3 | 1.0 | 1.90.2 · 3.1 · 1.9 | 2.4 | 17601760 · 1320 · 2760 | 4237 · 82 · 42 | 24- · 31 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 17 | 67% | - |
| 14:00 | goD | 15 | 134/4 | 1.0 | 2.50.2 · 3.5 · 2.5 | 3.0 | 24002400 · 1440 · 2960 | 6229 · 71 · 62 | 24- · 32 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 17 | 67% | - |
| 15:00 | goD | 15 | 137/4 | 1.0 | 3.20.2 · 3.8 · 3.2 | 3.9 | 26802680 · 1480 · 2960 | 3526 · 62 · 35 | 24- · 33 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 17 | 67% | - |
| 16:00 | goD | 15 | 115/4 | 0.5 | 2.40.6 · 3.6 · 2.4 | 4.5 | 25202520 · 1400 · 2760 | 3131 · 61 · 5 | 24- · 31 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 17 | 67% | - |
| 17:00 | goD | 15 | 092/3 | 0.4 | 1.41.2 · 3.3 · 1.4 | 5.2 | 20402040 · 1160 · 2480 | 4141 · 60 · 5 | 24- · 30 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 17 | 67%disputed | - |
| 18:00 | poorD | 15 | 092/3 | 0.7 | 1.81.8 · 2.9 · 0.5 | 5.1 | 15601560 · 1040 · 1920 | 4646 · 59 · 5 | 24- · 28 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 16 | 100% | - |
| 19:00 | dark | 15 | 094/3 | 0.7 | 2.42.4 · 3.1 · 0.0 | 5.7 | 10801080 · 840 · 1520 | 3737 · 63 · 5 | 24- · 26 · 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 15 | 100% | - |
The base is an estimate
The base is an Espy estimate from model temperature and dew point, read beside low-cloud cover. It is not a measured ceiling. Aim for 2000 ft and make the final call on the day.
How this forecast changed
Each row is one stored prediction for Wednesday 30 September, from D+4, when the day first entered the forecast, up to now. The hour columns are the same in every row. If a column changes colour as you read down, the forecast changed its mind. The label on the right is the window that run found. 14 predictions, oldest first. The last row is the forecast shown above.